Why is Iran's President in Pakistan right now?
a short Q&A that I shared w the Al Jazeera people...(and some postscripts)
The good folks at Al Jazeera have a short explainer on the Raisi visit to Pakistan. It is a well written and well edited piece. They had asked me three questions, which I reproduce, along with my responses below.
The Questions:
1. Why is the relationship between Pakistan and Iran vital?
2. What do we know about Raisi’s Pakistan visit?
3. What does Pakistan stand on recent Iran-Israel tensions?
The Answers
Q. Why is the relationship between Pakistan and Iran vital?
A. Pakistan’s relationship with Iran is the most complex of all its immediate neighbours. On the surface, common cultural bonds and a long border should translate into deep trade and people to people exchanges. Instead, trade is mostly outside the formal domain and travel is restricted to religious tourism. Iran sponsors terrorist groups and trains militant sectarian fighters it recruits from Pakistan to help sustain IRGC campaigns across the Middle East. It also hosts separatist terrorist groups—often teaming with other Pakistani adversaries (India and Afghanistan).
Better deterrence by the Pakistani authorities may force Iran to behave more responsibly—but Pakistan’s leaders have consciously sought to avoid playing into Iran’s sectarian gambits—and Pakistani Shias, though targeted by sectarian terrorists, remain a key policy concern for Islamabad as it calibrates is relationship with Iran.
Q. What do we know about Raisi’s Pakistan visit?
A. Iran’s leadership has been testing Pakistani resolve and responsiveness with a range of provocations over the years. The most recent was a cross border attack in which drones and missiles were fired onto Pakistani territory on January 16, 2024. Pakistan responded almost instantly and the exchange was followed by a cooling off. Iran’s strategic thinkers know Pakistan has both a domestic political crisis, and a growing range of economic compulsions that limit the range of movement on Pakistan’s engagement with the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The visit by Iran’s president is an effort to secure an expression of support from Islamabad and Rawalpindi for Iran—as it stumbles deeper into a dangerous conflict with Israel.
Q. What does Pakistan stand on recent Iran-Israel tensions?
A. Pakistan has an extremely consistent position on Palestine and on the need for Israel to respect the Oslo Accords and the 1967 borders. In recent years, there has been growing conjecture about pressure from GCC countries on Pakistan to make changes to its Palestine policy. There is no indication that such a change is on the cards. That said, expectations—both on Main Street across the wider Muslim world and in Tehran—that Pakistan can do anything more than continue to espouse its long standing principled position of support for Palestine and the people of Gaza and the West Bank—is ill informed and misguided.
Pakistan’s polycrisis encapsulates four key verticals: climate, debt, political and rule of law instability and security & terrorism. Pakistani elites have failed Pakistanis—they are in no position to help those in need much further afield. Any bombastic or overtly emotional statements made during the bilateral meeting w Iran’s leader will be noise—nothing more.
postscript I
Raisi’s trip to Pakistan includes stops in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi across three separate days (April 21, 22 and 23). This is further proof of Iran’s world class public diplomacy. Even long after the intrepid and crafty Javad Zarif—Iran’s ability to craft and sustain its narratives is lightyears ahead of any other country in its weight class. Only the Turks and Indians do it better in their wider region.
Pakistan’s floundering and clueless elites continue to serve their country up as a sitting duck for other nations’ tactical and strategic goals. The Taliban in Afghanistan, that Russian fox in Moscow called Putin, and the Iranians aren’t the worst of the lot—others including a long list of friends and benefactors—are able to negotiate with Pakistan’s military and civilian leaders with ease. This visit, at this time, by the president of a country that launched full scale missile and drone attack on Pakistani territory less than four months ago is classic Pakistani elite. Clueless, visionless and aimless. Good for Raisia and the Ayatollahs. Not so good for traffic in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi.
postscript II
Some Pakistani commentators’ zeal for policy autonomy and independence seems to be restricted to showing Pakistani muscle in one direction only. This is a product of a very effective—but very false—propagation of the narrative about Pakistan being a vassal for Western and especially US interests in its region. Funny how that narrative has taken shape despite two decades of Western journalists writing books about Pakistan’s double games, even longer, if you’re older and remember the seething rage that Zulfi Bhutto, Zia ul Haque and both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto used to cause in Western capitals for Pakistan’s adoption of its independent and autonomous Afghanistan policy—whatever the policy may have been.
In foreign policy in particular, the ability to clearly and unambiguously identify and pursue one’s national interest can only be achieved by having clear separators between things that sadden or anger us and things that have linear and material consequences. It is fine for people around the world to be buoyed by Iran and its ability (and willingness) to stand up to Israel. I guess one would need to ignore the reality of the substance of these acts of defiance—there isn’t much there. Still, it is understandable to feel like Iran is doing something when so many countries are doing nothing. What we should not conflate with this feeling is Iran’s role as a source of regional instability, and a truly “revolutionary” mindset and posture. One that is sustained by the ceaseless gardening of conflict across the entire Muslim and Arab world. Iran is only playing for Iran—it using Gaza as a prop. No one should be fooled by the pantomime. And Pakistan should be more like Iran—not in theatrics, but in its merciless pursuit of its own national interest.